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Southwest Monsoon Advances, Heavy Rainfall, and Heatwave Forecasts Announced

As of the latest update, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through the following coordinates and locations: 20.5°N/60°E, 20.5°N/63°E, 20.5°N/70°E, Navsari, Jalgaon, Akola, Pusad, Ramagundam, Sukma, Malkangiri, Vizianagaram, 19.5°N/88°E, 21.5°N/89.5°E, 23°N/89.5°E, and Islampur. Favorable conditions are predicted for the monsoon to advance further into additional areas of Telangana and Chhattisgarh over the next 24 hours.

Monsoon Systems and Forecast

Cyclonic Circulation and Trough Systems:

  • A cyclonic circulation exists over northeast Assam and its neighboring regions in the lower tropospheric levels.
  • A trough extends from East Uttar Pradesh to Nagaland, with another north-south trough along 86°E to the north of 22°N in lower tropospheric levels.
  • Strong southwesterly and southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal are influencing the northeastern states.

Monsoon: Rainfall and Thunderstorm Forecast:

  • Northeastern States: Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) is likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim over the next seven days.
    • Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, and isolated heavy rainfall over Arunachal Pradesh for the next five days.
    • Extremely heavy rainfall is anticipated over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on June 12-13, 2024.
  • Eastern and Central India: Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) are likely over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha over the next five days, with an increase thereafter. Similar weather conditions are expected over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh.

Shear Zone Influence:

  • A shear zone along 17°N in the lower and middle tropospheric levels will lead to scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Karnataka, Telangana, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep for the next two days. Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal will experience isolated rainfall over the next five days.
    • Isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over Kerala & Mahe, Marathwada, Interior Karnataka, and Telangana on June 12, and over Coastal Karnataka on June 12-13, 2024.
    • Very heavy rainfall is also likely over North Interior Karnataka on June 12, 2024.

Maximum Temperatures and Heat Wave Warnings

Temperature Observations:

  • Maximum temperatures ranged between 42-46°C in parts of Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, West Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, with some parts of East Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, and East Madhya Pradesh also experiencing similar conditions. These temperatures are 3-5°C above normal.

Heat Wave Warnings:

  • Heat wave conditions are expected in isolated pockets of Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, and Odisha over the next five days. Himachal Pradesh, Jammu Division, East Madhya Pradesh will experience heat wave conditions on June 12-13, and Rajasthan on June 12-13, 2024.
  • Severe heat wave conditions are anticipated in parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand from June 12-14, with isolated heat waves on June 15. Uttar Pradesh will likely experience heat wave to severe heat wave conditions from June 12-16, 2024.
  • Warm night conditions are expected in isolated pockets of Odisha from June 12-14, 2024.

Stay updated with local weather advisories and take necessary precautions to stay safe during these weather conditions.

Source: India Meteorological Department

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