As the calendar inches towards the end of November, India braces itself for a dynamic weather scenario characterized by the convergence of a Western Disturbance and a developing Cyclonic Circulation. This convergence is expected to bring a medley of conditions, including rainfall, thunderstorms, and a significant drop in temperatures across various regions of the country.
Western Disturbance Impact:
On the 26th of November, a fresh Western Disturbance is set to approach northwest India, extending into the East-central Arabian Sea off the Gujarat-Maharashtra-Goa coasts. The interaction between the upper-level trough in the westerlies and the lower-level trough in the easterlies is anticipated to result in the following weather phenomena:
- Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Gujarat State: Expect light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated thunderstorms and lightning, particularly on the 26th and 27th of November. Maximum activity is predicted on the 26th in Gujarat.
- South Rajasthan and North Madhya Maharashtra: Thunderstorms, lightning, and hail are likely on the 26th.
- Southeast Rajasthan, Southwest Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Gujarat Region, North Konkan, North Madhya Maharashtra & Marathwada: Isolated heavy rainfall is expected on the 26th.
- Western Himalayan Region and Plains of Northwest India: Anticipate light rainfall at isolated places from the 26th to the 28th. Thunderstorms and lightning may occur in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on the 27th.
Cyclonic Circulation Developments:
Simultaneously, a Cyclonic Circulation over south Thailand & adjoining South Andaman Sea is set to influence weather conditions, leading to the formation of a Low-Pressure Area over the Southeast Bay of Bengal around the 27th of November. This is expected to intensify into a Depression by the 29th of November, 2023, resulting in the following impacts:
- Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Light to moderate rainfall, along with isolated thunderstorms & lightning, is likely from the 26th to the 27th of November. Isolated heavy rainfall is also anticipated from the 26th to the 28th.
- Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal: Squally weather conditions, with varying wind speeds, are predicted from the 27th to the 30th of November. Fishermen are advised to exercise caution and avoid venturing into specified areas during this period.
Temperature Fluctuations:
Starting from the 28th of November, a general trend of falling minimum temperatures by 2-4°C is anticipated over many parts of Northwest, West, and Central India. This drop in temperatures adds another dimension to the evolving weather conditions, requiring residents to prepare for cooler evenings.
As the Western Disturbance and Cyclonic Circulation make their presence felt, residents and authorities are advised to stay abreast of the evolving weather conditions, adhere to safety guidelines, and be prepared for a range of meteorological phenomena in the coming days.
Source: India Meteorological Department
