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Monsoon Update: Progress, Rainfall Predictions, and Heat Wave Alerts

As the Southwest Monsoon continues its journey across India, its northern limit currently extends through 20.5°N/60°E, 20.5°N/63°E, 20.5°N/70°E, Navsari, Jalgaon, Amravati, Chandrapur, Bijapur, Sukma, Malkangiri, Vizianagaram, 19.5°N/88°E, 21.5°N/89.5°E, 23°N/89.5°E, and Islampur. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated favorable conditions for the further advance of the monsoon into more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and the northwest BOB over the next 3-4 days.

Weather Systems and Forecasts

  1. Northeastern India:
    • A cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam, coupled with an east-west trough from northwest Bihar to Nagaland, is influencing the weather.
    • Strong southwesterly/southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal are bringing widespread light to moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim for the next 7 days.
    • Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh over the next 5 days, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall likely over these regions on specific dates.
  2. Eastern India:
    • Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) are expected over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha for the next 5 days.
    • Odisha is likely to experience isolated heavy rainfall on June 14th, 17th, and 18th.
  3. Western and Southern India:
    • Strong westerly winds along the west coast are bringing scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) to Konkan & Goa over the next 5 days.
    • Widespread rainfall is anticipated in Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, with isolated heavy rainfall in Kerala & Mahe from June 16th to 18th.
    • Rainfall will be more scattered in Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal.
  4. Central India:
    • A cyclonic circulation over southwest Rajasthan is expected to cause light to moderate isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (40-60 kmph) in Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh over the next 5 days, and in Rajasthan over the next 2 days.
  5. Northern India:
    • A fresh feeble Western Disturbance as a trough in the middle tropospheric westerlies is likely to bring light isolated rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning to Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana on June 14th.

Temperature and Heat Wave Warnings

Maximum temperatures yesterday ranged from 44-47°C in many parts of Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and parts of west Jharkhand, southwest Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and north Rajasthan.

  • Heat Wave and Warm Night Conditions:
    • Severe heat wave conditions are expected in parts of Uttar Pradesh from June 14th-18th, and in Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand on June 14th-15th.
    • Heat wave conditions are likely in pockets of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu Division, northeast Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, north Chhattisgarh, and Odisha on various days between June 14th and 18th.
    • Warm night conditions are likely in isolated pockets of northeast Madhya Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh on June 14th.

Source: India Meteorological Department

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