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As we progress through mid-April 2024, India is experiencing a complex interplay of weather systems, bringing about varied conditions across different regions. From cyclonic circulations to intense Western Disturbances, here’s a comprehensive overview of what to expect in terms of rainfall, temperature fluctuations, and potential weather hazards over the next five days.
Cyclonic Circulations and Rainfall Predictions:
A cyclonic circulation is currently positioned over Saurashtra & Kutch, extending to South Interior Karnataka, while another lies over north Odisha and a third over the Comorin area & neighborhood. These systems are likely to influence the following rainfall patterns:
- Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra: Expect isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) from April 13th to 14th.
- Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Bihar, Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Isolated light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning is expected during the same period.
- Telangana, Kerala & Mahe, Interior Karnataka: Over the next six days, anticipate isolated light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph). Coastal Andhra Pradesh-Yanam, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry-Karaikal can also expect similar conditions from April 13th to 15th.
- Madhya Pradesh & Vidarbha: Hailstorm activity is likely at isolated places on April 13th.
Western Disturbance and Rainfall/Snowfall Projections:
An intense Western Disturbance, represented by a cyclonic circulation over Iran, is expected to bring moisture from the Arabian Sea into Northwest India from April 13th to 15th. This will result in:
- Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand: Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall/snowfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph).
- Northwest Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana: Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph). Rajasthan can expect isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning.
- Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh: Isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall.
- Jammu, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh: Isolated hailstorms.
- Rajasthan: Dust storm/thundersquall (50-60 kmph) on April 13th.
- Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Uttar Pradesh: Strong surface winds (20-30 kmph) from April 16th to 18th.
- Arunachal Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura: Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall/snowfall with isolated thunderstorms & lightning. Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Arunachal Pradesh and northeast Assam on April 16th.
Temperature Trends:
- West Rajasthan, Saurashtra & Kutch, Rayalaseema, Madhya Maharashtra: Maximum temperatures range from 40-42°C, above normal by 2-4°C in West Rajasthan.
- Northwest India: Expect a fall by 3-5°C in maximum temperatures over the next three days.
- Central & South Peninsular India: No significant change in maximum temperatures is expected in the next 24 hours, followed by a gradual rise by 2-4°C in the subsequent three days.
- West India: Gradual fall by 2-3°C in the next 24 hours, followed by a rise by 2-4°C in the subsequent three days.
- East India: Anticipate a gradual fall by 3-5°C over the next five days.
Warnings for Heat Waves and Hot, Humid Weather:
- Kerala & Mahe, Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Tamil Nadu, Coastal Karnataka, Odisha, Konkan & Goa, Saurashtra & Kutch: Hot and humid weather expected from April 13th to 17th.
- Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam: Heat Wave conditions are likely from April 15th to 17th.
Stay informed and prepared as you navigate through the diverse weather conditions across India over the coming days. Keep an eye on updates from local authorities and weather forecasts to ensure your safety and well-being.
Source: India Meteorological Department
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