The Indian subcontinent is currently witnessing a dynamic interplay of weather systems and Rainfall, notably the Western Disturbance and a developing Low-Pressure Area over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining Malacca Strait. Understanding these atmospheric phenomena is crucial for predicting and mitigating the associated weather impacts.
Western Disturbance Overview:
The Western Disturbance, characterized as a trough in the mid and upper tropospheric westerlies, is currently positioned with its axis at 7.6 km above mean sea level, running approximately along Long. 74°E to the north of Lat. 20°N. Notably, the induced cyclonic circulation associated with this disturbance is situated over North Gujarat and adjoining Rajasthan in lower tropospheric levels.
Recent observations indicate a diminishing phase locking between the Western Disturbance and low-level easterly winds, leading to a reduction in adverse weather intensity. While the adverse weather conditions have lessened, isolated light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by sporadic thunderstorms and lightning, is anticipated over Madhya Pradesh, north Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh on November 28th and 29th. The impact is expected to decrease significantly thereafter.
Furthermore, a gradual decrease in minimum temperatures by 2-3°C is predicted over Northwest and Central India in the next two days. Additionally, moderate fog at isolated pockets is likely during the morning hours over the same regions.
Low-Pressure Area in the South Andaman Sea:
Simultaneously, a low-pressure area has formed over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining Malacca Strait. Projections indicate its west-northwestward movement, intensifying into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal around November 29, 2023. Subsequently, it is anticipated to further intensify into a cyclonic storm over the southeast Bay of Bengal within the following 48 hours.
Warnings and Precautions:
In association with the Low-Pressure Area, specific warnings have been issued:
- Rainfall Warning:
- Light to moderate rainfall is expected over most places in the Nicobar Islands from November 28th to 30th, with isolated instances of heavy rainfall, particularly on November 28th and 29th.
- Fishermen Warning:
- Fishermen are advised to avoid venturing into the South Andaman Sea on November 28th and 29th.
- Avoid the Southeast Bay of Bengal from November 29th to December 2nd.
- Steer clear of the Southwest and adjoining Central Bay of Bengal from November 30th to December 2nd.
These warnings are critical for ensuring the safety of residents and maritime activities in the affected regions. As weather systems evolve, continued monitoring and adherence to advisories become essential for minimizing potential risks associated with these meteorological phenomena.
Source: India Meteorological Department